Methods for News Items Popularity Estimation on Early Stages
https://doi.org/10.15514/ISPRAS-2019-31(5)-10
Abstract
Millions of news are distributed online every day. Tools for predicting the popularity of news stories are useful to ordinary people to discover important information before it becomes generally known. Also, such methods can be used to increase the effectiveness of advertising campaigns or to prevent the spread of fake news. One of the important features for predicting information spread is the structure of the influence graph. However, this feature is usually not available for news, because authors rarely post explicit links to information sources. We propose a method for predicting the most popular news in the information flow, which solves this problem by constructing a latent graph of influence. Computational experiments with two different datasets have confirmed that our model improves the precision and recall of forecasting the popularity of news stories.
Supporting agencies: The study was funded by RFBR according to research project 18-07-01059
About the Authors
Aram Arutyunovich Avatisyan
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Graduate student of the faculty of VMK at Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Graduate student of the faculty of VMK at Moscow State University
Mikhail Dmitrievich Drobyshevsky
Ivannikov Institute for System Programming of RAS
Russian Federation
Junior Researcher, Information Systems Department
Russian Federation
Junior Researcher, Information Systems Department
Denis Yuryevich Turdakov
Ivannikov Institute for System Programming of RAS,
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Ph.D. in Physics and Mathematics, Head of the Information Systems Department at ISP RAS, Associate Professor of the System Programming Department of Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Ph.D. in Physics and Mathematics, Head of the Information Systems Department at ISP RAS, Associate Professor of the System Programming Department of Moscow State University
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Review
For citations:
Avatisyan A.A., Drobyshevsky M.D., Turdakov D.Yu. Methods for News Items Popularity Estimation on Early Stages. Proceedings of the Institute for System Programming of the RAS (Proceedings of ISP RAS). 2019;31(5):137-144. https://doi.org/10.15514/ISPRAS-2019-31(5)-10
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