Cellular Automaton Approach for the Urban Planning Influence Estmation on the Social and Economic Indicators while a Disease Spreading
https://doi.org/10.15514/ISPRAS-2024-36(5)-15
Abstract
The aim was to investigate how does a city configuration influence on a lethal disease spread. For this purpose, several configurations for subareas with high and low population density are considered. The spread was simulated via a stochastic cellular automata approach, with the main indicators being determined as average over a set of runnings. Since the automaton was based on a SIRS model, as an economic indicator we used the simultaneous sick number, as a social – cumulative dead number. In addition, we considered Manshift losses as a cost loss parameter. The simulation results yield that for the minimal dead number and economic losses it is preferable to use a regular grid of square-shaped low-density subareas. Despite the model suggested indicates that the city planning is important for the pandemic damage minimization which can be reduced due to smart urban development policy.
Supporting agencies: The work was supported by Russian Science Foundation (project 23-71-10068).
About the Author
Stepan Alekseevich ELISTRATOV
Institute for System Programming of RAS,
Institute of Mathematics of Siberian Branch of the RAS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Employee of Technical Systems Digital Modeling Laboratory of the Institute for System Programming of the RAS since 2021. Research interests: numerical simulation, forecast models, reduced order methods.
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Review
For citations:
ELISTRATOV S.A. Cellular Automaton Approach for the Urban Planning Influence Estmation on the Social and Economic Indicators while a Disease Spreading. Proceedings of the Institute for System Programming of the RAS (Proceedings of ISP RAS). 2024;36(5):219-226. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.15514/ISPRAS-2024-36(5)-15
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